NATIONAL WORKFORCE TURNOVER TRENDS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH MINIMUM WAGE, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA (2021–2025): A PUBLIC DATA ANALYSIS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65336/WJEBM.2026.3903Keywords:
Employee turnover, employee retention, time-series, BPJS Ketenagakerjaan, minimum wage, HRMAbstract
Employee turnover voluntary and involuntary is a central HRM concern with direct implications for organizational cost and human capital loss. This study documents national-level employment turnover trends in Indonesia for 2021–2025 (with supporting macro indicators traced back to 2018 as historical context in Table 2) using public administrative data: the total value of BPJS Ketenagakerjaan claims across all programs (JHT, JKK, JKM, JP, JKP) as a proxy for formal labor-market exit intensity, and the number of workers affected by layoffs (PHK) published by the Ministry of Manpower as a proxy for involuntary turnover. Both indicators are documented alongside three public macroeconomic indicators from BPS: the open unemployment rate (TPT), annual economic growth, and the national average minimum wage (UMP) increase. Because consistently verifiable data cover only 4–8 annual data points depending on the variable, this study deliberately limits itself to descriptive trend analysis rather than inferential regression/correlation, given a sample size far below the threshold for statistical generalization. Results show total BPJS Ketenagakerjaan claims rising consistently from IDR 42.93 trillion (2021) to IDR 68.24 trillion (2025) a cumulative 59.0% increase while recorded layoffs rose from 64,855 (2023) to 88,519 workers (2025), alongside a declining TPT trend from 6.26% (2021) to 4.76% (2025) and sharply fluctuating UMP increases (0%–8.71%). The study contributes a verifiable, publicly-sourced documentation of turnover trends and underscores the need for more granular (monthly and/or provincial) panel data for future inferential analysis.
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