INDIGENOUS PRODUCTION AND EXTERNAL DEPENDENCE IN HIGH-TECHNOLOGY MILITARY CAPABILITIES: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DETERRENCE AND FOREIGN POLICY SUCCESS

Abstract

This study systematically examines the impact of high-technology military capabilities on foreign policy success through the variables of indigenous production depth and external dependence. In the international relations literature, military power has generally been treated as a given and homogeneous variable, with insufficient scrutiny of its production conditions and supply relationships. However, today's complex technology ecosystems have rendered the political effects of military capacity more indirect and conditional. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the causal chain of "military capability → deterrence credibility → foreign policy success" through a mechanism-based approach.

The study employs a qualitative comparative analysis method, conceptualizing indigenous production as a multi-layered structure encompassing control over critical subcomponents, access to software and algorithmic capabilities, and integration capacity. External dependence is assessed through persistent constraint layers including licensing restrictions, export control risks, maintenance monopolies, and software update dependencies.

Findings demonstrate that as indigenous production depth increases, deterrence credibility rises, positively correlating with foreign policy success. Conversely, as external dependence intensifies, deterrence becomes conditional and foreign policy performance is constrained. The analysis also emphasizes the critical importance of the temporal dimension, showing that short-term external procurement advantages can deepen dependence channels over the long term.

The study offers an original theoretical synthesis by integrating realism's emphasis on power with the network approach of weaponized interdependence literature. Military technology is reconceptualized not merely as an instrument of foreign policy but as a structural condition shaping the foreign policy space itself. The results reveal that defense industry policies are directly related to foreign policy autonomy and that these two domains must be addressed in an integrated manner.